Without doubt, the Grand Shield is one of the most difficult contests to win and perhaps also the least-favourite of all contests for the top bands. Two of the last three winners of the Shield - Leyland and Tredegar - know from painful experience just how difficult it is to clamber back into the elite of the British Open field once they have fallen through the relegation trap door. It was the 5th attempt to win the Shield for both Leyland and Tredegar after their relegations in 2003 and 2005 respectively.

If, as expected, two bands are relegated from this year's line-up then there are a few 'big name' bands that will be on tenderhooks right up until Martin Mortimer and his team have completed their number-crunching and identified the two bands that will be booking their hotels and rehearsal venues in Blackpool in the Spring.

In pole position is Whitburn, narrowly avoiding relegation last year and with their run of 16 consecutive appearances under serious threat. Whitburn's plight is perhaps not helped by the fact that two of the 'rivals' for the drop are among the favourites for the Open title, at least on paper. It would be a major shock indeed were either Rothwell Temperance (currently ranked 6th) or a rejuvenated Fairey (7th) to succumb to the drop so that perhaps leaves a '4 into 2' battle to remain in banding's elite.

This year's placing will be added to last year's and the two bands with the highest aggregates will receive a Grand Shield entry form in the post in due course. Here is the bottom end of the table, showing placings from last year, to which this year's placing will be added:

10 Hepworth (Cookson Homes)
11 Fairey (Geneva)
13 Virtuosi GUS
14 Rothwell Temperance
15 Carlton Main Frickley Colliery
16 Whitburn

Recent history suggests that no more than about 25 or 26 points will be needed to survive but it's not an exact science (as shown below - relegated bands in red) and there will no doubt be a few anxious band chairmen with calculators in hand immediately following the results announcement on 4 September. Let battle commence.

2009
26 Fairey
26 Whitburn
28 Hammonds Saltaire
30 BTM

2008
22 Fairey
23 Kirkintilloch
25 Scottish Co-op
26 YBS
26 Rothwell Temperance
29 Flowers
plus Sellers International (defunct)

2007
23 Brighouse & Rastrick
23 Rothwell Temperance
25 Kirkintilloch
30 Reg Vardy
31 Aveley & Newham

2006
26 Reg Vardy
29 Sellers International
35 Ashton-under-Lyne
36 Yorkshire Imperial Urquhart Travel

2005
21 Grimethorpe Colliery (UK Coal)
22 Desford Colliery
23 Whitburn
35 Tredegar

2004
26 Yorkshire Imperial Urquhart Travel
27 Grimethorpe Colliery (UK Coal)
27 Tredegar
31 Cwmaman Institute
34 Carlton Main Frickley Colliery

2003
21 Cwmaman Institute
23 Kirkintilloch
23 Ever Ready
25 Besses o' th' Barn
25 Leyland
32 Travelsphere Holidays

2002
27 Travelsphere Holidays
27 Ever Ready
28 Kirkintilloch
31 CWS (Glasgow)
36 Carlton Main Frickley Colliery
38 Glossop Old
plus Todmorden Old (defunct)